Archive → April, 2011
Fantastic Friday!!
Treasuries and mortgages opened a little better this morning; 10 yr +4/32 at 8;00 and mortgages +3/32 (.09 bp). At 8:30 two data points; March personal income +0.5% and spending +0.6%, both in line with estimates The price index in March yr/yr +1.8% up frm +1.6% yr/yr in Feb; the core +0.9% yr/yr unchanged from Feb yr/yr. Q1 employment cost index also on target, +0.6%, up frm 0.4% in Q4 2010 and +2.0% yr/yr. Both reports were in line with forecasts and there was no noticeable reaction to either.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened -15, the 10 yr note that was up 3/32 at 9:00 under pressure down 4/32 and mortgages down 1/32 (.03 bp). Prior to the remainder of the economic data this morning the equity and rate markets showed some volatility, by 9:40 after opening lower the DJIA turned and was up 25 points. (see below for 10:10 level)
More data at 9:45; the April Chicago regional manufacturing index expected at 68 frm 70.6 hit at 67.6. New orders index 66.3 frm 74.5, prices pd for materials 81.8 frm 83.4, and employment component at 63.7 frm 65.6. Slightly weaker but largely ignored in the markets. Any index read over 50 is considered expansion, the overall index is the lowest this year so far but still strongly above 50.
At 9:55 the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index, expected at 69.6, unchanged from the last read, was 69.8 and down from final March 67.5. Current conditions index at 82.5 unch, expectations index at 61.6 frm 57.9 and the 1 yr out inflation index 4.6 unchanged. Like all the other data this morning it was in line with forecasts.
The dollar weaker this morning but recovering slightly from the lowest levels early. The Fed is targeting the dollar wanting it to fall in an effort to increase exports and keep the economic recovery going. IN the meantime gold and commodities will continue to increase as long as the buck falls.
More rate increases; Russia’s central bank unexpectedly increased its benchmark interest rate for the second time this year to cap inflation in the world’s biggest energy supplier.The bank increased the overnight deposit rate a quarter point to 3.25% and the overnight auction-based repurchase rate by the same amount to 5.5%. The inflation rate has been above the central bank’s target of between 6 percent and 7 percent for this year since October, driven by rising food and fuel prices. The European Central Bank lifted interest rates this month for the first time in almost three years, while regulators in Brazil, India and China raised borrowing costs at least four times in the past year.
Thursday Update and Stuff
Treasuries and mortgages doing better this morning; prior to 8:30 the 10 yr was 6/32 and mtgs +3/23 (.09 bp). At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were thought to have declined 13K last week, as reported claims increased 25K to 429K frm 404K the previous week. Continuing claims did decline as unemployment compensation continues to run out fore many; 3.64 mil frm 3.709 mil. Also at 8:30 the advance look for Q1 GDP, +1.8% about where most had revised their estimates downward. A month ago Q1 GDP was thought to be up 3.0%. The price deflator (inflation read) +1.9% in line with estimates. Initial market reactions to the data; treasuries added to their gains and the stock index futures slipped a little, overall the reactions weren’t much given weekly claims now well over the 400K level that most see as pivotal.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened -14 points, the 10 yr note +11/32 at 3.32% -3 bp and mortgage prices at 9:30 +8/32 (.25 bp) frm yesterday’s close.
At 10:00 March pending home sales from NAR, contracts signed but not yet closed. Up 5.1% from Feb but down 11.4% yr/yr.
Markets continue to think about what Bernanke said yesterday at his press conference, Bernanke is to be lauded for his willingness to stand up with reporters and provide some additional clarity about what the Fed is thinking about raising rates. He said it would take at least two more FOMC meetings before the Fed considered any tightening. There was a lot to consider from his comments but the most intriguing comment was ” Its not clear we can (the Fed) get substantial improvements in payrolls without some additional inflation risks, and in my view we can’t achieve a sustainable recovery without keeping inflation under control”. What that means to markets remains to be answered; keep unemployment high and keep inflation under control, or do things that lower unemployment and send interest rates higher?
As Bernanke spoke yesterday gold and oil prices exploded and the dollar was racked with more selling against the euro. Investors and traders continue to run to safety, a little into US treasuries but a huge run to gold as the outlook remains muddled to say the least. Employment isn’t likely to improve much, US debt increasing is an increasing concern in global markets, inflation in the rest of the world is increasing while the US refuses to admit it, consumers are tightening discretionary spending as gas price, food prices, and price increases are beginning to be passed down to consumers and it isn’t just food. The Fed still thinks commodity prices and energy price increases are “transitory” without definition as to what that means in terms of time. Bernanke admitted emerging markets are continuing to expand, yet somehow he appears to believe that the demand from those emerging markets for food and energy will not push US inflation higher and commodity and energy prices will decline.
Forcing investments to US stock markets? The Fed’s plan seems to be to keep rates so low that investors are forced to invest in US equities and to keep the dollar falling to help US exports.
Treasuries and mortgage markets continue their slightly positive bullish near term outlook. The economic outlook is being re-assessed lower, markets remain believing that the Fed is correct that inflation won’t be a factor for fixed income investments. Gold and silver are climbing the dollar is declining, all of it is safety trades in this very cloudy economic outlook. How much lower US interest rates can decline is questionable, if inflation fears continue to hold long term fixed income investments will not be attractive. Rates around the world are increasing, can the US continue to attract investors for our bond market? The dollar is continuing to fall against most currencies, not much progress or expectations for politicians to deal with the expanding deficit.
This afternoon Treasury will conclude its auctions this week with a $29B 7 yr auction.
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Wednesday Market Update
A little weaker this morning in the rate markets; not really unexpected after the recent improvement in rates and ahead of an historic day with the chairman of the Fed holding a press conference for the first time ever. The FOMC meeting will conclude at 12:30 with its usual short policy statement, then at 2:15 Bernanke will hold a 45 minute press conference to answer questions. It is huge step for the Fed to open the chairman to the media, it also could be just another event that fails to meet expectations. If Bernanke doesn’t allow follow up questions then he can waltz through the press conference without breaking a sweat and continue to let markets swing in the wind.
At 9:00 this morning the 10 yr note -12/32 at 3.35% after closing at 3.31% yesterday; mortgage prices off 6/32 (.18 bb), the stock indexes continue to improve as Q1 earnings generally beat estimates. At 9:30 the DJIA opened +11 then immediately retreated to unchanged, the 10 yr at 9:30 -12/32 and mortgages -6/32 (.18 bp).
At 8:30 March durable goods orders expected up 2.0% increased 2.5%, when the volatile transportation orders are ignored durables were up in line with estimates 1.3%; no reaction to the report as everything this morning is completely dependent on the FOMC policy statement and Bernanke’s press conference.
Mortgage applications decreased 5.6% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 22. There was no adjustment made for Good Friday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. The Refinance Index decreased 0.6% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 13.6% to its lowest level since February 25, 2011, driven by a 26.6% decrease in government purchase applications. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 2.4%. The four week moving average is down 0.8% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 3.2% for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 61.6% of total applications from 58.5% the previous week. This is the highest refinance share of the month. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity remained unchanged from the previous week at 6.5% of total applications. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.80% from 4.83%, with points decreasing to 1.01 from 1.06 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.03% from 4.07%, with points decreasing to 0.96 from 1.02 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans.
At 11:30 this morning Treasury will auction $35B of 5 yr notes; normally at 1:00 but with the FOMC policy statement at 12:30 Treasury moved the auction to 11:30. Yesterday the 2 yr note auction wasn’t as good as we would have liked but until the press conference is done this afternoon nothing is likely to move traders and investors. Another soft auction will be dealt with after the press conference is debated. As noted above, if no follow up questions are allowed the conference will be seen as just another sound bite.
Tuesday Trivia
US rate markets slightly better this morning but not much; the early trade in stock indexes were pointing to a better open on UBS earnings. The Fed begins its FOMC meeting today concluding tomorrow with the short policy statement at 12:30 then Bernanke’s awaited press conference at 2:15.
At 9:00 the Case/Shiller Feb home price index; on the 20 city measurement prices fell 3.3% yr/yr and on the 10 city metro prices fell 2.6% yr/yr. No reaction to the data as usual, there isn’t any improvement in the housing markets with prices continuing to fall and consumers seeing little compelling reason to buy or sell. Housing was the prime driver for the US economy since WW II until four years ago, now there seems to be little interest from Washington to directly address the issue.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +16, the 10 yr note +4/32 and mortgage prices at 9:30 +.12 bp.
At 10:00 April consumer confidence from the Conference Board, expected at 64.4 frm 63.4 in March, was better at 65.4 frm March revision up to 63.8 frm 63.4. The present situation measurement at 39.6 frm 37.5 the highest since Nov 2008; 12 month expectations 82.6 frm 81.3 and the 1 yr inflation outlook index to 6.3 frm 6.7. Overall a better consumer outlook boosted equity indexes a little but the bond market had little initial reaction.
The only significant focus point now is on tomorrow’s FOMC statement and what Bernanke will say at his press conference in answering what we hope will be the tough questions. The general conclusion now is that the Fed will complete its QE 2 $600B treasury purchases by the end of June. What comes next is what markets are seeking; most bond market participants and stock market enthusiasts are expecting Bernanke will keep interest rates low for at least the rest of the year and possibly longer. Bernanke and some other Fed officials have repeatedly defined the economy as in “modest recovery” and still fragile. As long as the Fed (Bernanke) see it that way the Fed will do whatever is necessary to keep rates low. As long as that outlook holds stock markets will continue to improve, low rates don’t have much positive impact on consumers (maybe lower car loans), mortgage rates are low but that isn’t motivating anyone. All about driving the dollar lower and pushing investments into equity markets.
Thursday the first look at Q1 GDP is expected at 1.5% to 2.3% growth; a lot weaker than was thought just six weeks ago. Increasing numbers of analysts are currently lowering growth expectations for Q2. The Fed isn’t about to yank its support with the economic outlook not as rosy as most were expecting a short time ago. Two weeks ago markets were all a buzz fearing inflation as commodity prices increase, today focus has changed to how much more help the Fed will provide. Unlikely we will have another QE 3 but the Fed has other ways to pump money into the bond markets; it may decide to reinvest the interest and principal payments from its bond holdings in treasuries.
The bond market isn’t expecting US rates will increase when the Fed ends QE 2 at the end of June. Since last Nov the Fed has purchased about $550B of treasuries while Treasury has issued $825B of notes and bonds, when the Fed ends its QE as is generally expected traders apparently believe markets will step up and fill the short-fall.
Treasury auction $35B of 2 yr notes at 1:00 this afternoon, expectations are for good bidding.
Technically the bond and mortgage markets remain bullish; that said we will continue to stand down from buying treasuries at least until we hear from Bernanke tomorrow
Monday Update
Treasuries and mortgage markets opened better this morning in light trading ahead of this week’s Treasury auctions and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Equity market pre-open trade were up a little, about unchanged from fair value pointing to a flat open. Crude oil continues to increase, up $1.00 at $113.30 at 9:00 am, gold also higher again today (+$10.00 at 9:00 am).
At 9:30 the DJIA opened -17, 10 yr note +2/32 and mortgage prices +4/32 (.12 bp).
At 10:00 the only data point today, March new home sales expected up 10.7%, increased 11.1% to 300K annualized and up from 270K in Feb frm 250K originally reported. Better but not much; the median sales price $213,800.00% down 4.9% frm Mar 2010, based on sales there is a 7.3 month supply down from 8.2 months in Feb.
The major focus this week is the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Always a key focus for the financial markets, this week even more so as for the first time in history the Fed chief will hold a 45 minute press conference after the meeting. Normally the FOMC releases a short policy statement after the meeting at 2:15 pm; this meeting will conclude with the statement at 12:30 then at 2:15 Bernanke will hold his news conference allowing reporters to ask questions. The Fed is trying to increase certainty and add stability in markets removing much of the speculation about what the Fed really means. Unlikely that his press conference will add more clarity, but at least he will try.
Treasury will auction $99B of 2′s, 5′s and 7 yr notes Tuesday through Thursday, selling the 5 yr note sandwiched between the Fed’s policy statement at 12:30 and Bernanke’s press conference at 2:15 on Wednesday. Economic data has new home sales today (see above), weekly claims on Thursday along with the first look at Q1 GDP also on Thursday. This week also has a huge number of Q1 earnings reports that will set the tone for the equity markets. So far earnings overall have generally beaten Street estimates. Technically the bond and mortgage markets are looking good as inflation worries fade and the dollar declining. We don’t expect much change in mortgage prices until Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.
This Week’s Economic Calendar:
Tuesday;
9:00 am Case/Shiller Feb home price index (-3.2% 20 city)
10:00 am April consumer confidence index (64.4 frm 63.4 in March)
1:00 pm $35b 2 yr note auction
Wednesday;
7:00 am weekly MBA mortgage applications
8:30 AM March durable goods orders (+1.8%, ex transportation +1.2%)
12:30 pm FOMC policy statement
1:00 pm $35B 5 yr note auction
2:15 pm Bernanke press conference
Thursday;
8:30 am Q1 advance GDP report (+1.7%)
weekly jobless claims (-13K to 390K, continuing claims 3.69 mil frm 3.695 mil)
10:00 am NAR pending home sales for Mar (+1.7%)
1:00 pm $29B 7 yr note auction
Friday;
8:30 am March personal income and spending (income +0.4%, spending +0.5%)
Q1 employment cost index (+0.5%, Q4 +0.4%)
9:45 am Apr Chicago purchasing mgrs index (68.0 frm 70.6 in Mar)
9:55 am U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index (69.6 unch frm mid-month)
Much of the world markets are closed today, likely will influence trade in US markets today. The bond and mortgage markets sitting relatively unchanged so far this morning. Technically the bond and mortgage markets slightly bullish but any selling could change the technicals quickly. Debate continues about the value of treasuries and the present rates. Recent comments from Bill Gross at PIMCO that returns at present rates are not worth investing, while most dealers continue to prime the pump that bonds are a good investment. Generally we do not expect the bellwether 10 yr note to move above 4.00% this year, which is the general consensus. Gross’s criticism of present low rates, and his comment recently that PIMCO was at one point short US rate markets upset many that said it was anti-American. “I could join the dealers and say the 10-year’s not going to go to 4 percent, so what am I left with?” Gross said…….“I’m left with an under-yielding, less-than-inflation security. I have better choices. As a firm we’re not going to put up with it.”
Is Our Government Stupid?
Really, this is not a rhetorical question! Watch and think about it!
Click to view video!
The question we have to face is what is going to stop all of the well meaning/ill conceived regulations from continuing to snowball and threatening to destroy the Real Estate industry and our economy?
Thrusday Trivia
A little better start today in the rate markets while the stock indexes early were pointing to another better open at 9:30. More earnings reports late yesterday coming better than expected. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were widely expected to have declined 22K after increasing 27K the prior week; claims were down 13K to 403K, continuing claims declined to 3.695 mil frm 3.702 mil the week before. The 4 wk average on claims at 399K frm 396.7K. Claims remain elevated showing little progress recently after falling in Feb and Jan. A week ago the NFIB reported small business optimism, after improving since last Oct, fell to the level prior to last Oct; small businesses are the engine for employment, without hiring in that sector unemployment is unlikely to decline much.
Most Q1 earnings reports are hitting better than expected, driving the equity markets higher but having little if any impact in the employment sector. No job growth, no improvement in the housing sector, $4.00+ gas prices, food prices increasing—-it doesn’t matter as long as investors large and small see their net worth increase. The US approaching bankruptcy with the political outlook less than favorable that a serious budget reduction plan will emerge—-who cares? S&P lowering US debt to negative from stable has generally been pushed to the background and dismissed; the consensus among traders, investors, politicians, analysts and economists is still denial, the US will never lose its AAA credit rating. After all this is the strongest economy and nation in the world—–or is it? Republicans don’t want to increase taxes, Democrats don’t want to cut spending; if both parties don’t get close to being on the same page soon we will wake on day with interest rates much higher, the dollar (already falling hard) will not be the reserve currency of the world and the US will be a follower and not a leader. Hard to imagine, but we are closer than most think and many won’t admit outwardly.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +16, 10 yr note +3/32 and mortgage prices +2/32 (.06 bp).
At 10:00 April Philly Fed business index, expected to have declined to 32.9 frm 43.4, as reported the index plunged to 18.5; the new orders component 18.8 frm 40.3, employment 12.3 frm 18.2 and prices pd for materials at 57.1 frm 63.8. The decline in the index took the stock market down initially and boosted prices in the rate markets. The decline in the overall index supports the growing concern that the economy isn’t as strong as had been thought as recently as two weeks ago. (any index read over zeros is considered expansion)
March leading economic indicators at 10:00 expected +0.2% jumped 0.4%.
The FHFA housing price index for Feb declined 1.6%, no surprise there.
This is the end of the week with market closed tomorrow. Next week Treasury will auction an estimated $99B of notes and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. For the first time the Fed will release its policy statement at 12:30 then at 2:15 Fed chief will hold a news conference allowing questions and opening more details about the meeting and the intent of the generally short policy statement. Given recent events and debates and posturing over the coming budget battle the Fed will have the opportunity to say its piece in a manner unlike we haven’t had prior to this meeting. The auctions and the FOMC meeting may keep markets steady at present levels.
Rates to Continue Improvement?
Treasuries and mortgage markets began flat today after yesterday’s nice improvements. Markets still reacting to yesterday’s announcement from S&P that it lowered US debt from stable to negative; not a down grade in the debt rating but a signal that unless our politicians do something real in reducing debt spending and increase taxes soon the debt rating may be lowered. While we believe it highly unlikely US debt ratings will actually be lowered, it was nevertheless a shot across the bow to Washington that time is running out on the spending binges that have been the norm for the last eight years.
S&P and the other rating agencies took serious and deserved heat for continuing to rate the junk mortgages created in 2002 to 2007 as AAA. Now it appears the rating agency isn’t going to make the same mistake. After watching Washington fumble around for the last year and unwilling to make the hard choices, S&P’s action yesterday may have pushed politicians to address the US instead of focusing on their own political careers.
Yesterday’s market reactions were just the opposite of what conventional wisdom would expect after the S&P announcement; stocks should have rallied and interest rate markets should have spiked higher, the dollar should have declined. None of that occurred; stocks were slammed on weaker earnings and money didn’t leave the bond market. Where would investors go with their wallets? Gold, it did increase to a new record; to the stock market that most now believe is overdone with economic outlooks being revised lower; there is nowhere to go except stay put in treasuries. By mid-morning yesterday the initial selling seen in bonds and improvements in equity indexes, investors and traders went back to other economic fundamentals; stocks fell and the rate markets improved while the US dollar rallied nicely against the Euro currency.
Mary Miller, undersecretary of Treasury made one of the most curious comments about S&P’s announcement, saying S&P “underestimates” US political leadership. Where has she been for the past 10 yrs? Our politicians have been spending and growing the government for years with little interest in fiscal responsibility. The Fed under Greenspan and now under Bernanke has been telling Congressional committees for years to get with fiscal discipline in their various testimonies. Congress yawned and kept right on greasing the pig; hopefully S&P’s action will be taken more seriously than the Federal Reserve.
March housing starts and permits out at 8:30, starts lower than expectations, while permits better. March starts were expected to have increased 7.8%, as reported starts up were up 7.2%; Feb starts however were revised higher, to 512K units from 479K and -18.5% frm 22.5%. Permits up 11.2% against estimates of +3.9%; 594K from 534K in Feb. There was no market reaction to the data; no one believes housing is going to rebound this year.
Yesterday we reported that PIMCO had established a short position on US treasuries, that they did, but this morning after being criticized for being anti-American PIMCO has established a long position in the bond market. The fund had to have taken a loss on shorting, PIMCO swings a heavy hammer but it too at times gets it wrong.
The US stock market at 9:30 opened 31 points on the DJIA, mortgage prices unchanged and treasuries also unchanged.
Now that the S&P action has been somewhat digested, there isn’t much scheduled through the rest of the week. Last night Passover began and Friday is Good Friday; trading volume should decrease through the rest of the week. Lower volume can at times juice up volatility, unless there is unexpected news markets will have little to chew on through the rest of the week. That said, no one was expecting the S&P news.
Looking at the economic outlook, it has generally been revised lower by now after comments and forecasts from the IMF, the NFIB and various economists and analysts. As coming data reflects a slowing the bond and mortgage markets should hold lower rates. A moving target as we have said previously. This is earnings season, so far not as strong as thought, but there is a lot to go.
Monday Mania!
This Week; is Holy Week. Trade likely will be quiet with the religious holiday. Most all of the data points this week are centered on the housing sector; starts and permits for Mar, new and existing home sales, the NAHB housing market index Monday and the FHFA housing price index on Thursday. The only other releases are weekly claims on Thursday and the and the April Philadelphia Fed business index also on Friday. That’s it for the week. Markets closed on Friday.
Until a week ago the overwhelming consensus in the markets was that the US economy would have a strong Q1 and optimism for the rest of the year was being touted as continued improvement. Over the past week investors were beginning to re-think the economic outlook and lowering expectations. It started with the IMF saying it is revising lower GDP Q1 growth from 2.0% to 1.5%; markets had accepted growth in Q1 at +3.0%. The Fed’s Beige Book out last week, while remaining optimistic, showed indications that growth isn’t as powerful as markets were thinking. The National Federation of Independent Business overall index fell in April, taking the optimism that had improved since last Oct totally away. Small businesses account for the majority of jobs. This is also earnings season with companies reporting Q1; so far earnings have been a little disappointing.
Consumer spending declining, until recently, have been ignored by investors. Even with gasoline and food prices increasing markets generally didn’t pay much attention—-until last week. $4.00+ gasoline and rapidly increasing food prices will, as we have continued to mention, slow consumer spending. Bernanke out there saying the increase in energy and commodity prices are “transitory” may not be; markets beginning to understand that. With consumer spending less than expected and the housing markets still showing no signs of stabilizing, let alone improving, investors are getting a little nervous.
And as of this AM:
Treasuries and mortgage markets opened better this morning on weaker stock indexes pointing to a weak open at 9:30. Trading this week will be on low volume with Passover and Holy Week. Already this morning there has been an increase in volatility; the 10 yr note traded +10/32 at 9:00 then fell to -5/32 and immediately bounced back to unchanged; mortgage prices at 8:59 this morning +5/32, at 9:07 -1/32, at 9:15 -4/32 (.12 bp). This week will likely be somewhat volatile but by the end of the week not much changed; many investors and traders will be leaving by mid-week.
S&P roiled markets early this morning; saying it has downgraded US debt to negative. The DJIA opened -170 points at 9:30, the bond and mortgage markets were quite volatile as investors were somewhat shocked on the announcement. Treasuries erased an earlier advance, the dollar pared gains versus the euro and gold rallied. S&P affirmed reduced the long-term U.S. debt rating to negative from stable, while affirming its AAA long-term and A-1+ short-term sovereign credit ratings. S&P said that more than two years after the beginning of the recent crisis, U.S. policymakers have not agreed on a strategy to reverse recent fiscal deterioration or address longer-term fiscal pressures. While a shock, it shouldn’t have been with our politicians in Washington twinking around with budget cuts that were nothing; they patted themselves on their collective backs and announced a $38B cut in spending, but the actual real cut amounted to just $318 mil. All of the cuts were just not funding what had been approved previously. As long as our “leaders” are unwilling to make serious steps to cut spending and increase revenues (taxes) the US debt rating will continue to be down-graded, and US interest rates will increase.
Listening and watching the reaction from guests on CNBC one would think markets were slapped in the face with the down-grade and are taking offense. We and others have warned for over two years that US debt ratings were going to be lowered. Somehow most in the US believe the US is immune to debt ratings declines; time to wake up folks, the US if corporate accounting were to be applied, is bankrupt. 50% of all Americans pay no federal income tax while politicians don’t have the stones to do what everyone knows has to be done. We do not have leaders, we have politicians that above all want to keep their jobs.
This week has little data except for the housing sector; March starts and permits, March existing home sales as well as this morning’s NAHB housing market index and Thursday’s FHFA housing price index. The only non-housing data comes on Thursday with weekly jobless claims and the April Philadelphia Fed business index. The markets will close early on Thursday and be closed Friday for Good Friday.
This Week’s Economic Calendar:
Today;
10:00 am April NAHB housing market index (17 was expected, as reported 16)
Tuesday;
8:30 am March housing starts and permits (starts +7.8%; permits +3.9%)
Wednesday;
7:00 am MBA weekly mortgage applications
10:00 am March existing home sales (+2.5%)
Thursday;
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (-22K back to 390K; con’t claims 3.650 mil frm 3.680 mil)
10:00 am April Philadelphia Fed business index (32.9 frm 43.4 in March)
Mar leading economic indicators (+0.2%)
FHFA Feb housing price index (N/A)
Friday;
Markets closed
Fed speak; at 12:30 Dallas Fed’s Fisher speaking on the economic outlook. Likely he will continue the Fed’s outlook, moderate growth with no inflation concerns but that the Fed will continue to monitor events closely. The Fed will complete the $600B QE 2 by the end of June. His comments won’t likely present anything new.