Archive → June, 2011
Rates on the Rise?
The bond and mortgage markets opened better this morning after the strong selling the last two sessions taking rates up 20 basis points. The Greek debt issue is off the radar for the moment after its parliament voted to cut spending and qualify for assistance from the IMF and EU keeping Greece from defaulting, at least for now. Safety trades in US treasuries being closed and the very weak treasury auctions this week along with the end of QE 2 today—all combined to drive rates higher in a rapid move. Mix in that the ECB will likely increase its base interest rates next week and the tone has changed. Both the 10 yr note and FNMA 4.0 coupon hit and held their respective 200 day averages but broke all other shorter term averages, the momentum oscillators are now in bearish levels. As we continue to point, the bond and mortgage markets are going to remain volatile over the next week or so as investors work through the end of QE 2, Europe’s continuing debt issues and the weakening economic outlook. We are not looking for interest rates to increase in a major way but it is unlikely rates will return to the best levels seen three or four days ago.
Germany’s biggest banks and insurers and the government agreed on a draft proposal to roll over Greek debt holdings before a meeting with Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble today, people familiar with the plan said.(Bloomberg)
Weekly jobless claims at 8:30 were down just 1K to 428K, estimates were for a decline of 8K. Continuing claims declined 12K to 3.72 mil. Weekly claims have now been above 400K for 12 consecutive weeks, no improvement but equally no increases in claims.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +47, the 10 yr note +7/32 at 3.10% -2 bp and mortgage prices +5/32 (.15 bp).
At 9:45 the June Chicago purchasing mgrs index, expected at 53.8 frm 56.6 in May, jumped to 61.1; new orders increased to 61.2 frm 53.5, employment did decline to 58.7 frm 60.8 and prices pd at 70.5 frm 78.6 on a decline in oil prices recently. The report much stronger than thought flipped the bond and mortgage markets from minor price gains to lower prices; mortgage prices at 9:3 up 5/32 (.15 bp) at 9:50 -5/32 (.15 bp), a .30 bp swing lower and breaking the 200 day averages on the 10 yr yield and prices on the FNMA coupon. VOLATILITY!
Will the Fed launch QE 3 at some point? That is the question being debated in minds of traders now with the economic outlook declining somewhat. Many believe the Fed is out of bullets to help the economy, historically low US interest rates haven’t helped much, at least based on where the economy stands now; however what would have been the situation if the Fed hadn’t executed QE 2, buying $600B of US treasuries? Bernanke has said it is now a fiscal matter, meaning Congress and the Administration have the ball now; that of course isn’t a confidence builder in the minds of investors since Washington continues to play its political games while the country stumbles.
Today is the end of the month and the end of the quarter, to some extent today trading in equities and bonds may be impacted on moves large investors need to make to adjust their portfolios for the end of the 2nd quarter.
Wednesday’s Wash
At 9:00 this morning al global markets are glued to the events in Athens with the vote on austerity is taking place; in the streets police firing huge amounts of tear gas to break up protesters. The vote has been completed and it passed. Greek citizens will pay a heavy price for its government and its country over-spending for years. As we have noted many times in this column once a positive vote on spending cuts would happen the US bond market would see selling as safety trades are taken off. The US rate markets have moved higher quickly as we noted previously they would likely do once Greece moved back from the cliff. Two days ago France got their banks to re-cast shorter term Greek debt to much longer payout terms, one necessary step along with austerity plans to keep Greece from defaulting. News out of Germany indicates it will also get their banks to follow France’s necessary action.
The bond and mortgage markets have turned bearish near term, breaking most bullish technical levels in the last 48 hours. From a technical perspective, as we have mentioned a multitude of time here, both the US equity and bond markets have been at extreme overbought (bonds) and oversold (equities). It was only a matter of time before markets would turn over. It usually takes some event to trigger the swift change in over-extended markets; the Greece vote, the poor bidding on this week’s Treasury auctions and comments from Jean Claude Trichet yesterday interpreted to imply the ECB will raise its base lending rates in July have combined to send interest rates higher.
Is this the end of the declining interest rate markets? It is too soon to make that call! Markets have to settle and turn back to basic economic fundamentals and calm down from the current volatility. What we can take away, when the 10 yr note trades below 3.00% it is on thin ice. Investors in US bond markets are increasingly likely to demand a higher rate of return to continue funding the US growing budget deficit as interest rates in Europe and China increase. The outlook for US economic growth also a question mark; the divide between bullish outlook and a less optimistic outlook is wide—-both views not well grounded.
Monday and yesterday Treasury auctioned $70B of notes in two auctions; both failed to meet expected demand. Today Treasury will auction $29B of 7 yr notes after rates have increased 20 basis points since the close last Friday, with higher rates will the 7 yr see better demand? If not expect more selling.
Already this morning markets have been very volatile; in the bond and mortgage markets prices have had a wide range. The 10 yr note yield spiked to 3.10% at 9:00, by 9:30 back to 3.06%; mortgage prices at 9:00 -9/32 (.28 bp), at 9:30 -3/32 (.09 bp). The three stock indexes equally volatile into the 9:30 open. Expect more trade volatility through the rest of the day.
Mortgage applications decreased 2.7% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 24, 2011. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. The Refinance Index decreased 2.6% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.0% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.8% compared with the previous week and was 4.5% higher than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 0.7%. The four week moving average is down 1.5% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 1.5% for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 69.5% of total applications from 69.2% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.8% from 5.9% of total applications from the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.46% from 4.57%, with points increasing to 1.19 from 0.91 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. This is the lowest 30-year rate recorded in the survey since the middle of November 2010. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.64% from 3.70%, with points increasing to 1.11 from 1.05 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. This is the lowest 15-year rate recorded in the survey since the beginning of November 2010.
The DJIA opened +40 at 9:30, the 10 yr note -9/32 at 3.07% +3 bp and mortgage prices -3/32 (.09 bp) frm yesterday’s close. Stock indexes have rallied for the past couple of days and interest rates have increased; all about the belief that the Greek bailout would be completed, now that the vote passed it may be a buy-the-rumor-sell the fact trade today in both the stock and bond markets.
The NAR reported May pending home sales at 10:00; expected up 3.5% jumped 8.2% frm April. Yr/yr +13.4%. A better rep[ort than was thought. There was no initial reaction to the report. At 10:00 the DJIA has turned lower.
Tuesday Trivia
Treasuries and mortgages opened weaker this morning after a little pull-back yesterday after the weak $35B 2 yr note auction. With one exception (last Friday) the bellwether 10 yr note has traded within a 10 bp range (3.00% to 2.90%) for the last 10 days. Yesterday’s weak bid on the 2 yr note may imply that investors are becoming less interested in USA debt at the present low rates; this afternoon Treasury will auction $35B of 5 yr notes, a little better test of that theory.
Greece still dominates the news today; a two day strike in the country met with tear gas and rubber bullets today while the parliament is debating serious cuts in spending, much of it is on cutting social programs. The much anticipated vote on the necessary cuts to get help from the IMF and EU will take place tomorrow morning, the number of yes votes has to be more than 150 to get it done. Although there are strikes and riots markets are expecting the vote on cuts will pass. France led the way yesterday for its banks to re-cast loans to Greece, extending payouts as far out as 30 yrs on debt maturities less than 5 yrs. Germany is expected to force the same for its banks.
The Case/Shiller April 20 city home price index was down 0.1% frm March and yr/yr down 4.0%, both generally in line with expectations. Nothing new there, housing will continue to drag down the economic recovery.
The ECB raised its benchmark rate in April for the first time in almost three years, lifting it by a quarter point to 1.25 percent. Inflation in the 17-nation euro region has been in breach of the ECB’s 2 percent limit since December. According to comments frm Jean Claude Trichet this morning the ECB is likely increase rates again next week at its meeting.
The DJIA opened +30, the 10 yr at 9:30 -5/32 at 2.95% +2 bp and mortgage prices -3/32 (.09 bp).
The June consumer confidence from the Conference Board, expected at 10:00 was somehow released at 9:40. It was expected about unchanged from May at 60.7, as released down to 58.5. The present conditions index fell to 37.6 frm 39.3, the expectations index fell to 72.4 frm 76.6. No reaction to the softer data, the stock indexes continued to gain and treasuries and mortgages lost a fell clicks immediately after the early release.
Next up for the bond market, the $35B 5 yr note auction. Traders will be keen to see what kind of demand will emerge after the surprisingly weak demand for yesterday’s 2 yr note auction.
Although markets are expecting Greece will pass the austerity cuts demanded by the IMF and EU, there is still a little uncertainty. We don’t expect much in the markets this morning, and not much this afternoon unless the 5 yr flops. Today it is mostly waiting on Greece in the bond market. There is uncertainty on how markets will react if the vote is positive; will investors take off the safety trade, one factor keeping US rates low?
Monday Minutia and The Week To Come
This Week starts Monday with Treasury selling $35B of 2 yr notes , the first of three auctions this week totaling $99B and the last auctions before QE 2 ends on Thursday. Economic data Monday, personal income and spending. Later this week manufacturing reports, the ISM and Chicago purchasing mgrs index; recent data on manufacturing has been softening. The stock market continues to suffer under the increasing cloud of the economy back-sliding. As the week moves on trading will thin out going into a long week-end. Normally employment is out on the first Friday of each month, but not when the first Friday is ton the 1st of the month; that data comes on the 8th of July. Not a lot of data this week, the bond market will take its direction from how equity markets perform. Greek lawmakers start a three day meeting on Monday in an attempt to pass spending cuts ($111B) to meet demands from the IMF and EU for a bailout deal.
Treasuries and mortgages opened flat this morning with the stock indexes also about unchanged. At 8:30 May personal income and spending; income up 0.3% and spending unchanged. The core PCE up a little, +0.3%; May personal savings rate +5.0% up frm +4.9% in April. Consumers still saving, a good thing overall but further indication that consumer spending isn’t going to be the driver of any potential economic recovery. Historically personal spending accounted for 70% of GDP, now any improvement in the economy has to come from exports and in our view that is a huge hill to climb. The weak spending added a little support to the bond and mortgage markets and pushed stock indexes into the red.
This afternoon Treasury will auction $35B of 2 yr notes, the first of three auctions this week to borrow a total of $99B and the last of Treasury auctions before the end of QE 2 on Thursday. The question now is, with QE ending will interest rates remain at these low levels as the Fed exits? For the last six months the Fed has purchased the equivalent of about 60% of all Treasury borrowing in the period.
Greece begins three days of debate in its parliament to approve spending cuts of $111B to trigger the IMF and EU package approved last week and keep Greece from defaulting. Greek, Portuguese and Irish 10-year bonds declined, driving up the extra yield investors demand to hold the securities instead of benchmark German bunds. The debt crisis that is spread all over Europe’s second tier countries and is one key driver keeping US interest rates low and the US stock market sliding.
This Week’s Economic Calendar:
Monday;
8:30 May personal income and spending (as reported +0.3% on income , spending unchanged)
1:00 pm $35B 2 yr note auction
Tuesday;
9:00 am Case/Shiller Apr 20 city home prices (-3.9%)
10:00 am June consumer confidence index (60.7 frm 60.8)
1:00 pm $35B 5 yr note auction
Wednesday;
7:00 am weekly MBA mortgage applications
10:00 am NAR May pending home sales (+0.7%)
1:00 pm $29B 7 yr note auction
Thursday;
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (-8K to 421K; con’t claims 3.70 mil frm 3.697 mil)
9:45 am June Chicago purchasing mgrs index (53.8 frm 56.6)
Friday;
9:55 am U. of Michigan final June consumer sentiment index (71.8 unch)
10:00 am June ISM Nat’l manufacturing index (51.3 frm 53.5—under 50 is considered contraction)
3:00 pm June auto and truck sales
Crude oil continuing its decline this morning on increasing belief the US economy is going to slip more and in China its economy also slowing. The IEA and the Obama Administration released 60 mil barrels of oil from the strategic reserves last week (30 mil from the US reserves); the IEA saying it will release more if necessary. Meanwhile gasoline prices continue to fall. It is a moving target the amount of declines in given areas of the country; here in Indianapolis gas has fallen from $4.22/gal a few weeks ago to $3.30 yesterday. Will the decline increase consumer discretionary spending?
The DJIA opened +20 at 9:30, the 10 yr note +2/32 and mortgage prices at 9:30 unch.
Slowly interest rates continue to decline, likely more this week with no firm resolution on Greek debt plans until Thursday. Demonstrations will go on all week in Athens as politicians debate spending cuts that have citizens revolting and protesting. It is likely the government will meet the demands of the IMF and EU with spending cuts, but until the ink is dry on the legislation the uncertainty will be a continuing positive for US bond markets.
More Doom and Gloom From The Economy, Rates to Improve?
Treasuries and mortgage markets were rallying early and got an additional boost at 8:30 on weekly jobless claims. Claims were thought to be about unchanged, as reported up 9K to 429K, the 11th week in a row over the key 400K level. Labor said six states were “estimated” due to computer issues so we don’t really know what impact that might have had on the data. The data this week is the data that will be used to get to the employment data for the month of June. Last week’s claims were revised higher, to 420K from 414K. Continuing claims were about unchanged, from 3.698 mil to 3.697 mil. The 4 wk moving average on claims was unchanged. The slightly weaker report added to the rally moving the 10 yr note from +12/32 to +18/32 on the initial reaction. The stock market was hit yesterday, the DJIA down 80, at 8:45 this morning the index traded down 86 points and falling.
Yesterday Ben Bernanke and the FOMC meeting confirmed what most had known for two months, the US economy isn’t growing much. The Fed lowered its outlook for GDP to +2.7% this year; earlier this yr the Fed was forecasting 4.0% growth but has been lowering the forecast at each FOMC meeting since Feb. Bernanke’s press conference is shaking the economic bulls both late yesterday and this morning. For all the debate and discussions about the economy it is becoming more difficult to paint lipstick on the outlook. We have warned for months the economy won’t grow much as long as confidence levels remain low.
The FOMC policy statement, its revisions for GDP growth less than previous, and Bernanke’s press conference yesterday have cast an “official” pall on markets. Most traders had already recognized the economic slide, now with the Fed joining in the current sentiment has sunk to a new recent low. Increasing concerns of weakness in the outlook were confirmed by the Fed, the final so-called authority.
The decline in confidence in Washington is multiplying rapidly, as it does businesses are less willing to hire and consumers less willing to spend. It should be apparent now that consumers are smarter than most in Washington, getting their budgets under control. In the past consumers were responsible for 70% of GDP, over the next year or two if the economy is to gain growth it will rest on US exports. The short response to that, the US cannot grow if we have to rely on increasing exports.
At 9:00 the IEA (International Energy Agency) held an emergency press conference. The IEA is going to release 60 million barrels of oil to make a move to revive the global economies that are slipping quickly; 2 mill barrels a day for the next 30 days. America will release 30 mil of the total. In Europe sovereign debt problems continue to drag on worsening its outlook. Oil prices at 9:15 down $4.30 (see below for 10:00 level); gold is being slammed this morning on the dollar strength, down $28.00.
The dollar rose against all of its 16 major counterparts after Bernanke signaled yesterday that the central bank won’t add to stimulus measures that could erode the value of the currency. The euro weakened against the greenback before European leaders begin a two-day summit in Brussels today to discuss Greece’s financing needs as the nation struggles to stave off default. That the EU, IMF and Germany and France and Greece cannot get to finality is evidence that Europe’s debt problems spread far more than just Greece and the tenuous condition facing the EU and its currency. How the Greek situation is resolved will likely set the tone for Spain, Ireland and Portugal and possibly Italy and then the EU overall.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened down 145, S&P -17 and NASDAQ -33. The 10 yr note 2.92% -6 bp and mortgage prices +8/32 (.25 bp). Running for the door with oil prices and gold falling. Yesterday’s FOMC meeting, Bernanke’s comments and the never-ending saga in Greece are piling on this morning. The 10 yr note though so far has not cracked 2.90%. The rest of the day in US financial markets will likely see increased volatility.
At 10:00 May new home sales, expected down 4.6%, were down 2.1%. 6.2 month supply. 319K units annualized. Median sales price $222,600 down 3.4% yr/yr. No immediate reaction in the markets on the data.
Although the 10 yr still hasn’t pushed to test recent low yields, we will revert to floating overall except for closings occurring in the next 7 days. The Fed has finally agreed that the economic outlook isn’t good and with inflation under control and Europe still slipping the bond and mortgage markets should hold. How much lower interest rates can decline is still a huge question in my mind, but there is little reason now to worry that rates will increase. The 10 yr note continues in its 10 basis point yield range. We expect market volatility to remain high for the next week or so.
Monday Market Update
Treasuries and mortgage markets opened weaker this morning with the US stock indexes looking slightly better after falling 172 points on Friday. The bellwether 10 yr still hanging close to 3.00%, unable to sustain under 3.00% for any length of time. There are no economic reports today but the momentum will pick up through the rest of the week after very little last week.
On the global picture, still no consensus in Europe over how to deal with Greece’s debt problems. It seems one day they have have a plan, the next day not. Greece and other European countries are aiding the low rates in the US but mostly its the new momentary outlook that the economy is rolling over. While pessimism has increased recently it won’t take more than a couple of better than expected key data points this week to swing the wobbly sentiment to one of more optimism. In essence the markets have little conviction about the economic outlook either way. From China; its economy is weakening; lending in the country is declining. China is wanting a cooling of its over-heated economy.
Paul Muolo at National Mortgage News is reporting that risk retention for lenders looks like it is dead. What a good way to start the week; hopefully his sources are correct. FDIC chairman Sheila Bair, a big booster of RR, leaves next month and exits the debate permanently. By August or so legislation is introduced that amends the Dodd-Frank bill and gets rid of the whole concept of risk retention, qualified residential mortgage and its cousin qualified mortgage. In other words this colossal industry headache goes away and mortgage bankers are happy and hopefully consumers will be, too. IN the panic and adolescent reaction to the sub prime mortgage meltdown Congress led by two totally unknowledgeable politicians, Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, ran amok in Washington with a 2800 page bill to reform the world; we only hope more intelligent heads will begin to prevail and correct the mess those two have made.
This Week’s Economic Calendar:
Monday; no data
Tuesday;
8:30 am May retail sales (-0.7%; ex auto sales +0.2%)
May PPI (+0.1%, ex food and energy +0.2%)
10:00 am April business inventories (+1.0%)
Wednesday;
7:00 am weekly MBA mortgage applications
8:30 am May CPI (+0.1%; ex food and energy +0.1%)
June NY Empire manufacturing index (10.0 frm 11.9 in May)
9:15 am May industrial production (+0.2%)
May capacity utilization (77.0% frm 76.9% in Apr)
10:00 am NAHB June hosing market index (16, the same as it has been for months)
Thursday;
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (-6K to 421K; con’t claims 3.69 mil frm 3.676 mil)
May housing starts and permits (starts +3.2% to 540K units annualized; permits -0.5% to 548K)
Q1 current account (-$130B)
10:00 am June Philadelphia Fed business index (7.0 up frm 3.9 in May)
Friday;
9:55 am U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index (73.5 frm 74.3)
10:00 am May lading economic indicators (+0.4%, April -0.3%)
Crude oil prices down again today after last week’;s report that Saudi Arabia will go it alone and increase production after Iran blocked any increase at the OPEC meeting. Gold down a little. The DJIA opened +37, the 10 yr -8/32 at 3.00% and mortgage prices down 6/32 (.18 bp).
Not real sure about it but one source is indicating Bernanke will speak at 2:30 this afternoon on the US debt issues.
The Pavlov’s Dog trade continues; stock indexes up, bonds lower in price. We are not expecting much out of today’s trade with no data today and a lot of it hitting through the rest of the week. The equity markets are oversold technically while the bond market is equally overbought now. No clarity yet but we worry that interest rates may begin to edge up a little, particularly if this week’s various data points show some improvement compared to last months series of surprisingly weak data.
Thursday Trivia
Treasuries and mortgages doing better again this morning, the stock indexes in pre-market trade were better. Weekly jobless claims at 8:30 were a little softer than expected but generally in line; +1K to 427K, last week’s claims were revised from 422K to 426K. Continuing claims were down 71K to 3.676 mil. Treasuries were better prior to the claims and increased slightly after the release; by 9:00 however the 10 yr note backed off to unchanged and mortgage prices that were +3/32 at 8:00 were down 4/32 (.12 bp) on the session.
Also at 8:30 the April US trade deficit was expected at -$48.8B, good news, the monthly deficit was -$43.69B. Good news but does it imply the US economy is weaker than thought with less imports? More likely the decline is a result of Japan’s problems with the earthquakes and tsunami that hindered auto part exports. Imports dropped 0.4 percent to $219.2 billion from $220.2 billion in March. Demand for foreign-made automobiles and parts dropped by $2.82 billion to $19.1 billion, and crude oil imports fell by $2.42 billion as prices rose.
The ECB met and held interest rates unchanged; markets were expecting the bank to leave rates unchanged, no direct reaction of consequence.
The White House is said to be considering lowering or eliminating payroll taxes for businesses hiring new employees. It is in the planning stage, if actually proposed it will likely get bi-partisan support as Republicans have been pushing for more help for businesses.
Will there be another easing move from the Fed? As the economic outlook weakens the prospect is more in play in the minds of analysts. Not real sure what another Fed easing move will accomplish but with Congress and the Administration seeming to be paralyzed the Fed is seen as the only game in town. QE 2 didn’t help the economy as is obvious now, lower interest rates won’t help much. The problems in the economy are structural; consumers unwilling to spend much, gasoline prices and food prices continuing to increase, the housing sector being left out to dry; another easing move by the Fed won’t help cure those problems.
OPEC refused to increase output in their meeting yesterday; this morning Congress and the Administration are making comments that the US should open the strategic oil reserve to keep crude from increasing. The reserve has 727 million barrels in it; it would take a week or so once a decision to release oil to reach markets. Crude oil at 9:00 this morning up $1.00 at $101.74.
The last of this week’s auctions at 1:00 this afternoon, $13B of 30 yr bonds will be sold. Yesterday’s 10 yr auction met with good demand, today’s auction should also go well.
While the bond and mortgage markets remain strong with the prospect for lower rates still in tact; the markets presently are somewhat overbought in the near term, all momentum oscillators we use are in overbought levels.
It’s June – Where is the Warm Weather?
What the heck is going on Bay Area? It still feels like winter out there! Let’s take a look at what is in store for us this week in regards to the mortgage market.
This Week; the stock market will continue to struggle after the very weak employment report last Friday and all recent data that is confirming a slowdown in growth. The bond and mortgage markets will benefit as long as the outlook for the economy is expected to slip back. The 10 yr note is working on the psychological 3.00% level, to push yields lower it will take continuing declines in the equity markets. Another weekly lower lose in the stock market will make it six weeks in a row, not seen since back in 2002.
This week there is much in the way of economic data; Treasury will auction a total of $66b of notes and bonds beginning Tuesday through Thursday ($32B 3 yr, $21B 10 yr and $13B of 30 yr). The auctions will likely go well as most have in the last few months; however, there is always some concern that should keep interest rates frm improving much until the demand for the 10 yr note on Wednesday is measured. OPEC will meet on Wednesday with the Saudis wanting to push production higher, crude will likely trade lower in the meantime. While we continue to look for somewhat lower interest rates, this week may not provide much improvement. Technically the rate markets are overbought and likely will consolidate here for awhile. Early Monday rate markets were a little weaker with stock indexes also pointing to a lower open.