Posts Tagged → mortgage
Have Rates Bottomed Out?
Stronger than expected economic data pushed mortgage rates a little higher again this week. Following a string of weekly drops since the middle of June, mortgage rates have now risen for two straight weeks.
Over the summer, mortgage rates have fallen substantially. Weaker than expected economic reports and the debt crisis in smaller European countries caused investors to reduce their forecasts for economic growth and produced a flight to the relative safety of government guaranteed bonds, resulting in the lowest mortgage rates in decades. Now, however, some investors are asking whether they can fall further. Weaker than average economic growth, low inflation, and an “unusually uncertain” economic outlook still make the current environment supportive of low mortgage rates, but some investors feel that these factors have been fully “priced in.” These investors feel that economic growth must falter significantly for mortgage rates to drop much from here.
Also contributing to the fall in rates was the possibility that the government would take action which would push mortgage rates lower. The political climate has turned less favorable for this, though. Growing opposition to fiscal spending of any type has reduced the chances for additional government support for the housing market and mortgage rates.
The most significant economic data next week will be the monthly inflation reports. The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of “intermediate” goods used by companies to produce finished products and will come out on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Friday. CPI looks at the price change for those finished goods which are sold to consumers. In addition, Retail Sales, an important indicator of economic growth, will be released on Tuesday. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity. Industrial Production, another important indicator of economic growth, is scheduled for Wednesday. Empire State, Import Prices, Consumer Sentiment and Philly Fed will round out the week.
Existing Home Sales Drop Again In January But Stay On The Trendline
The winter months have not been kind to home sales.
After plunging 17 percent in December, Existing Home Sales fell by an additional 7 percent in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. An “existing home” is a home resold by a previous owner (i.e. not new construction).
In looking at the annualized, adjusted Existing Home Sales data, we find:
- Sales volume is at its lowest levels since June 2009
- Sales volume fell below its 12-month rolling average
- Home supplies are at a 5-month high
These are similar findings to the New Home Sales data issued by the government last week. That report put new home sales at a 40-year low and showed new homes supplies higher by an entire month.
But don’t think housing rebound has halted! Home sales are cyclical and there are outside forces on today’s market.
For one, the market is still feeling the after-effects of the original First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. Sales spiked in the months leading up to the original November 2009 expiration date. A pull-back is natural and expected.
Looking at the long-term trend, Existing Home Sales volume appears right in line.
Furthermore, weather across much of the U.S. was awful in January. That, too, can impede home sales as homes are neither shown nor negotiated when weather is majorly inclement.
Anecdotal evidence is showing sales activity higher through February and into March. And, although it’s unlikely we’ll see a spike through April like we did last November, buy-side demand for homes should remain strong. The good news of the sagging sales reports is that today’s buyers may find home prices are lower and sellers are more willing to negotiate.
Tags: Existing Home Sales,New Home Sales
How To Properly Screen A Prospective Tenant
According to the the National Association of Realtors®, “distressed homes” represented nearly 2 of every fifth home sold in January 2010. Clearly, real estate investors are taking advantage of good deals on cheap property. But there’s risk involved.
This NBC Today Show interview first ran in March 2009, featuring real estate expert Barbara Corcoran. Despite its age, the message remains relevant. Today may be a terrific time to buy a bank-owned home — just make sure you do your research first. There’s plenty of ways for investors to get burned.
Some of the tips in the video include:
- Buy in your own backyard
- Start small, then build to a bigger portfolio
- Watch receipts — rent rolls don’t matter if tenants aren’t paying rent
Corcoran also gives pointers on how to evaluate a prospective tenant.
Foreclosures should represent a large number of 2010’s total home sales and will offer interesting opportunities to bona fide real estate investors. Before you jump in, make sure to watch the video. The rents you save may be your own.
Remember, the stats and the data are from 12 months ago, but the advice stays meaningful.